All-State Predictions

Though Jeff and I were too much removed from DE swimming to do much commentary this year, I figured I'd post all-state predictions and a quick wrap-up.

Sallies won another boys championship, but Charter made it a close meet (28 points).

Charter girls earned their fifth straight title.

Tanner Kurz smashed Clifton Gordon's 2011 record in the 200 IM. He now owns 5 individual state records.

Lilly Dubroff broke the oldest girls swimming record (Kaitlyn Brady's 2003 50 Free) in prelims and went on to rebreak that record and Annie Nunes's 2010 100 free record in finals.

The Charter girls broke their 2010 200 Medley Relay record.

Kaitlyn Jones also rebroke her records from last year in the 200 IM and 100 Back.

The oldest record remains Mark Kolman's 500 Free, a 4:30.98 from 1989. Matt Stasiunas's 4:34.37 is the closest anyone has come to it in at least 8 years.

The all-state predictions are below. They've been accurate the past few years, but mistakes are always possible. The official teams will be announced by DIAA soon.

Congratulations to all record-breakers and DE swimmers!

1st Team All State
Name	Event #1	Points #1	Event #2	Points #2	Total
Tanner Kurz	200 IM	165	100 Breast	166	331
Matthew Stasiunas	200 Free	136	500 Free	140	276
Matthew Tankle	100 Free	130	100 Back	139	269
Brad Brooks	200 Free	133	500 Free	135	268
Sean Baker	50 Free	127	100 Free	125	252
Bryan Panaccione	100 Fly	121	100 Back	129	250
Ben Creekmore	200 Free	123	100 Fly	127	250
Nick Insley	50 Free	127	100 Free	121	248
Nick Gutsche	200 IM	118	100 Fly	115	233
Jordan Carey	200 Free	116	500 Free	115	231
Chris Gardner	200 Free	106	100 Back	124	230
Samuel Minka	50 Free	113	100 Breast	116	229
A.J. Brady	100 Free	113	100 Back	116	229
Arthur Wang	200 IM	112	100 Breast	116	228
Kevin Kruelle	1st place diver		No Second Event		N/A
2nd Team All State
Name	Event #1	Points #1	Event #2	Points #2	Total
Mark Wellborn	200 Free	110	500 Free	114	224
Brent Hochstein	200 IM	112	100 Fly	102	214
Tyler Coffing	50 Free	108	100 Free	103	211
Dan Loa	200 IM	99	100 Breast	112	211
Kyle Weston	200 IM	106	100 Breast	104	210
Jonathan Witchard	50 Free	107	100 Free	102	209
Drew Cox	200 Free	102	100 Free	104	206
Zach Mullan	100 Fly	102	100 Back	104	206
James Mauk	200 IM	96	500 Free	108	204
Ian Moyer	100 Back	119	No Second Event		119
Dustin Venables	50 Free	118	No Second Event		118
Robbie Dickson	500 Free	118	No Second Event		118
Gray Venables	50 Free	115	No Second Event		115
Alan Bundschuh	100 Fly	113	No Second Event		113
Oliver Hanes	100 Breast	113	No Second Event		113
Kerry Lucas	2nd place diver		No Second Event		N/A
3rd Team All State
Name	Event #1	Points #1	Event #2	Points #2	Total
Patrick Barboun	100 Back	111	No Second Event		111
Henry Rogatz	200 Free	111	No Second Event		111
Patrick Walker	50 Free	111	No Second Event		111
Tommy Defosse	100 Fly	106	No Second Event		106
Carter Michael	100 Free	105	No Second Event		105
Michael Barboun	500 Free	105	No Second Event		105
Philip Kopunek	100 Breast	104	No Second Event		104
Christopher Dryden	100 Back	102	No Second Event		102
Chris Recchione	100 Fly	101	No Second Event		101
Jake Minka	500 Free	98	No Second Event		98
Zach Zdradzinski	100 Breast	97	No Second Event		97
Christopher Barboun	200 IM	93	No Second Event		93
Ian Heffner	3rd place diver		No Second Event		N/A
1st Team All State
Name	Event #1	Points #1	Event #2	Points #2	Total
Kaitlyn Jones	200 IM	170	100 Back	170	340
Lily Dubroff	50 Free	160	100 Free	156	316
Annie Nunes	100 Free	137	100 Breast	151	288
Courtney Clarke	100 Fly	136	100 Back	138	274
Elise Lankiewicz	100 Fly	139	500 Free	128	267
Sarah Braatz	200 Free	133	100 Free	129	262
Haley Novak	200 IM	124	100 Breast	130	254
Alyssa Sanders	50 Free	127	100 Back	127	254
Payton Shirey	50 Free	129	100 Free	116	245
Lexi Santer	200 Free	129	500 Free	113	242
Madison Northshield	200 Free	117	500 Free	123	240
Taylor Shelley	200 IM	118	100 Back	120	238
Margaret Slocomb	200 IM	121	100 Back	117	238
Allie Carter	200 IM	115	100 Fly	123	238
Harbour Boots	1st place diver		No Second Event		N/A
2nd Team All State
Name	Event #1	Points #1	Event #2	Points #2	Total
Jordan Sawyer	50 Free	122	100 Free	115	237
Erin Turulski	200 Free	109	500 Free	123	232
Corinne Capodanno	50 Free	115	100 Free	115	230
Jaclyn Harkins	200 Free	111	500 Free	118	229
Annie Walker	50 Free	112	100 Back	115	227
Catharine Armiger	200 Free	112	500 Free	108	220
Laura Jogani	200 Free	97	100 Fly	121	218
Meghan Jones	500 Free	104	100 Back	108	212
Claire Mesko	200 Free	107	100 Free	104	211
Ellie Jogani	200 IM	97	100 Fly	113	210
Kelsey Dramis	200 IM	97	100 Breast	106	203
Caitlyn Blake	100 Fly	122	No Second Event		122
Drew Sanclemente	50 Free	113	No Second Event		113
Kristen Holliday	100 Fly	113	No Second Event		113
Blair LaJudice	2nd place diver		No Second Event		N/A
3rd Team All State
Name	Event #1	Points #1	Event #2	Points #2	Total
Briana Hall	50 Free	111	No Second Event		111
Nicole Farina	100 Fly	110	No Second Event		110
Zoe Coffing	100 Breast	100	No Second Event		100
Lyndsay Taddei	100 Free	98	No Second Event		98
April Sun	100 Breast	98	No Second Event		98
Brooke Saunders	500 Free	97	No Second Event		97
Lindsay Hayman	100 Breast	97	No Second Event		97
Chloe Hunter	100 Breast	92	No Second Event		92
Maddie Crimmins	100 Back	92	No Second Event		92
Sarah Snyder	100 Breast	91	No Second Event		91
Tessa Hayman	200 IM	90	No Second Event		90
Alexis France	3rd place diver		No Second Event		N/A

Official All-State Team Announced

The official All-State list has been released, and the projection posted earlier is accurate.

Congratulations to all swimmers!

Finals

Girls' Results here.
Boys' Results here.

Edit: The team scores are both located at the bottom of the results pages.
(Also, for those interested, you can download a file to import the results into Team Manager by clicking here)

Looks like this year was another year of broken records. I count seven total, four on the boys' side and three on the girls' side:

Girls:

• Kaitlyn Jones breaks her own 200 IM record as well as Kaitlyn Brady's 100 Back record
• Nicole Vernon also swims faster than the previous 200 IM record, while also breaking her own 500 Free reocrd

Boys:

• Salesianum's 200 Medley Relay team of Matthew Tankle, Alex Hampel, Clifton Gordon, and Matt Stasiunas broke a record previously held by Salesianum
• Clifton Gordon broke Eric Materniak's 200 IM record from last year
• Tanner Kurz broke Rory Connell's 100 Free record as well as Brent Deputy's 100 Breast record

This year also saw repeats of champions on both sides, with Charter girls and Salesianum boys winning again, although the boys' meet was much closer than it was last year, and in theory, sets up for what could be a really close meet for next year (looking at points lost by seniors as a measure, Salesianum "loses" 97 points, while Charter "loses" only 17, which would put Charter ahead for next year, but as we all know, a lot can change with new swimmers joining teams and current swimmers getting better). Nonetheless, it sounds like it was exciting, and I must say I miss the meet and the excitement a lot.




Girls' All-State Probables:

1st Team All State
Name	School	Event #1	Points #1	Event #2	Points #2	Total
Kaitlyn Jones	Tatnall	200 IM	168	100 Back	159	327
Nicole Vernon	Tatnall	200 IM	164	500 Free	160	324
Annie Nunes	Charter	100 Free	142	100 Breast	160	302
Elise Lankiewicz	Wilmington Frien	50 Free	138	100 Fly	140	278
Lily Dubroff	Charter	200 Free	134	50 Free	143	277
Calli Marando	Middletown	100 Fly	131	100 Breast	140	271
Courtney Clarke	St. Mark's	100 Fly	133	100 Back	134	267
Laura Askin	Caesar Rodney	200 Free	129	100 Free	126	255
Alyssa Sanders	Milford	50 Free	124	100 Back	130	254
Brittany Lazear	Padua	200 Free	126	100 Free	126	252
Haley Novak	St. Mark's	200 IM	118	100 Breast	129	247
Corinne Capodanno	Padua	50 Free	120	100 Free	120	240
Margaret Slocomb	St. Mark's	200 IM	118	100 Back	117	235
Jaclyn Harkins	St. Mark's	200 Free	113	500 Free	121	234
Leah Hatkevich	A.I. duPont	1st place diver		No Second Event		N/A

2nd Team All State
Name	School	Event #1	Points #1	Event #2	Points #2	Total
Alexis Coon	Milford	100 Fly	117	100 Breast	116	233
Lexi Santer	Charter	200 Free	118	500 Free	113	231
Sarah Braatz	Newark	200 IM	107	100 Free	120	227
Mary Caitlin Samuels	Ursuline	200 Free	104	100 Fly	121	225
Annie Bruxelles	Sanford School	100 Free	114	100 Back	110	224
Angelina Corrado	Brandywine	50 Free	112	100 Free	112	224
Neallie Payne	Delaware Militar	50 Free	118	100 Breast	100	218
Kristen Holliday	St. Mark's	100 Fly	109	500 Free	105	214
Taylor Shelley	Padua	200 IM	100	100 Back	109	209
Catharine Armiger	St. Mark's	200 Free	104	500 Free	101	205
April Sun	Charter	200 IM	87	100 Breast	116	203
Payton Shirey	Sussex Tech	50 Free	125	No Second Event		125
Clare Thomas	Sussex Tech	100 Free	118	No Second Event		118
Amanda Penkrot	Concord	100 Back	115	No Second Event		115
Katie Lounsbury	Tatnall	2nd place diver		No Second Event		N/A

3rd Team All State
Name	School	Event #1	Points #1	Total
Jordan Sawyer	Newark	50 Free	113	113
Laura Jogani	Archmere	100 Fly	112	112
Annie Walker	Charter	100 Back	111	111
Cecily Gordon	Padua	100 Fly	109	109
Claire Mesko	A.I. duPont	200 Free	106	106
Nicole Avallone	Charter	100 Breast	106	106
Brooke Saunders	Conrad Schools o	500 Free	98	98
Zoe Coffing	Newark	100 Breast	90	90
Kelsey Dramis	Archmere	200 IM	80	80
Connor Reader	Dover	500 Free	79	79
Gabby Pagan	Charter	500 Free	67	67
Harbour Boots	Lake Forest	3rd place diver		N/A

Boys' All-State Probables

1st Team All State
Name	School	Event #1	Points #1	Event #2	Points #2	Total
Tanner Kurz	Delaware Militar	100 Free	146	100 Breast	167	313
Clifton Gordon	Salesianum	200 IM	146	100 Back	147	293
Tommy McKee	Brandywine	200 Free	136	100 Free	134	270
Tyler Beeson	Mt. Pleasant	50 Free	135	100 Free	133	268
Brad Brooks	Charter	200 Free	132	500 Free	133	265
Ben Creekmore	Archmere	200 Free	132	500 Free	126	258
Nick Insley	Appoquinimink	50 Free	130	100 Back	126	256
Bryan Panaccione	St. Mark's	50 Free	124	100 Fly	131	255
Matthew Tankle	Salesianum	100 Free	123	100 Back	132	255
Adam Keup	Delaware Militar	100 Fly	126	100 Breast	114	240
Alan Panaccione	St. Mark's	200 IM	115	100 Back	125	240
Alex Hampel	Salesianum	200 IM	122	100 Breast	112	234
Jordan Lingo	Milford	200 Free	120	500 Free	114	234
Nick Gutsche	Charter	100 Fly	114	100 Breast	119	233
John Gravatt	Salesianum	1st place diver		No Second Event		N/A

2nd Team All State
Name	School	Event #1	Points #1	Event #2	Points #2	Total
Matthew Stasiunas	Salesianum	200 Free	109	500 Free	123	232
Nicholas Perkucin	Mt. Pleasant	200 IM	112	500 Free	117	229
Jack Hain	St. Andrews	50 Free	114	100 Free	114	228
Cody Latchford	William Penn	100 Free	111	100 Back	112	223
Chris Gardner	Charter	500 Free	108	100 Back	113	221
Joseph Creekmore	Archmere	200 IM	110	100 Fly	106	216
Andrew Welch	Glasgow	200 Free	98	100 Back	113	211
Dan Loa	Charter	200 IM	100	100 Breast	108	208
Zach Nerwinski	Tatnall	200 IM	101	100 Fly	104	205
Byron Crane	A.I. duPont	200 Free	98	500 Free	89	187
Seth Klair	A.I. duPont	100 Breast	127	No Second Event		127
Sam Minka	A.I. duPont	50 Free	117	No Second Event		117
Colin Weir	Brandywine	50 Free	115	No Second Event		115
Sean Baker	St. Mark's	100 Free	113	No Second Event		113
Thomas Carlson	Charter	2nd place diver		No Second Event		N/A

3rd Team All State
Name	School	Event #1	Points #1	Total
Christopher Barboun	Salesianum	100 Breast	111	111
Bryant Hughes	Caravel	100 Free	111	111
Mark Burgess	St. Mark's	50 Free	111	111
Matt Hamilton	Archmere	50 Free	109	109
Ian Moyer	Newark	100 Back	108	108
Luke Morgan	Wilmington Frien	100 Fly	105	105
Brent Hochstein	Salesianum	100 Breast	101	101
Zach Mullan	Concord	100 Fly	97	97
Tommy Defosse	Brandywine	100 Fly	97	97
Drew Cox	Archmere	500 Free	96	96
Seth Kurz	Delaware Militar	200 IM	91	91
Travis Payne	Delaware Militar	200 Free	84	84
Alex Wright	Charter	3rd place diver		N/A

Boys Prelims Results

Boys prelims results can be found here

The updated all-state list and team scores are also online:

Boys Prelims All-State

Boys Prelims Scores

Any predictions for big changes?

Good luck to all swimmers Saturday!

Girls Prelims Results

Girl prelims results are online here.

I have uploaded the updated scores and power points.

Girls All-State (Prelims)

Girls Scores (Prelims)

Edit: The link to scores posted last night was incorrect and has been updated at of 2/24 10am EST.

Obviously things will still change as it is prelims.

If anyone wants to modify these results to reflect your predictions for finals, I will run it and post the results.

Good luck to the guys swimming tomorrow!

Also, I just today updated the State Meet Records (I didn't see any new records as of tonight). - Jeff

2011 HS States Psych Sheets

Hello all!

Jeff has invited me to guest write on the blog.

I've run my old program for all-state projections and team scores. Keep in mind these are based on psych sheets and many times will change.

Though this has been accurate the last 3 years, there's always the potential for an error.

The tables don't display well here, so I've uploaded them all.

Boys All-State: http://bdeakyne.com/swim/boys_2011_psych_pp.html

Boys Score: http://bdeakyne.com/swim/boys_2011_psych_score.html

Girls All-State: http://bdeakyne.com/swim/girls_2011_psych_pp.html

Girls Score: http://bdeakyne.com/swim/girls_2011_psych_score.html

The girls side is very close - it'll be interesting to see how that works out.

Hopefully this was helpful and motivating to you all!

I will try to give some comments and projections on this in the next few days.

Edit - for those of you who haven't seen them, links to the psych sheets - boys girls

Season Wrap Up

After what was, for me, a long week since the state meet, I am finally getting a chance to take a look at results and put a little word up here about them. I got a chance to see the official all-state lists, and the results as published here look to be accurate with one change - Rob Pagan of Charter is on the Second Team, not the Honorable Mention (yes, that does make for 16 people on the second team, and no, I don't know why they did it that way, especially since there were actually a total of 45 male swimmers named to the All-State Team).

Anyway, it looks like this year was a bit of a "record" year, with (what may be an unprecedented) 9 records set:
Boys:
Eric Materniak 200 IM 1:52.32
Tanner Kurz 50 Free 20.40
Clifton Gordon 100 Fly 49.08
Tanner Kurz 100 Back 50.29

Girls:
Charter 200 Medley Relay 1:47.37 (team of Crowder, Rechsteiner, Foreman, and Nunes)
Kaitlyn Jones 200 IM 2:00.60
Annie Nunes 100 Free 50.91
Charter 200 Free Relay 1:38.10 (team of Rechsteiner, Faull, Nunes, and Foreman)
Katie Rechsteiner 100 Breast 1:02.58

Congrats to all of the record-breakers on making this a record-breaking year.

As for the team scores, the Salesianum Boys and Charter Girls won in commanding fashion, as was pretty much expected. However, the race for second went to Charter on the boys' side, something that The News Journal didn't pick up on during the season, and DMA fell to fifth, behind St. Mark's and A.I. Now, if DMA hadn't been disqualified in their 200 Medley Relay, they probably would have been 4th, but that is part of the sport. A.I., also was missing some swimmers for various reasons, but, again, that is part of high school athletics. On the girls' side, Padua earned second place, as they had been ranked, and St. Mark's got fourth, just one back from their end-of-season ranking. Tatnall, previously not ranked, moved into third place (as to have been expected by the Delaware swimming community), and Brandywine rounded out the top 5, with pressure from Newark and Milford. Meanwhile, the end-of-season fourth place Concord team fell to 14th and A.I. (fifth at The News Journal) fell to 9th. Granted, this was a snow-shortened season, but some of the rankings this year were pretty far off. That being said, The News Journal, as most other print newspapers must be struggling at this point just to stay afloat, so the minimal coverage is almost forgivable.

On another note, I've noticed some discussion in the comments regarding high school coaches. Swimming is maybe one of the hardest sports to pick a coach to be the Coach of the Year, because so many of the All-State level swimmers never or hardly ever practice with their high school team. Except for some sprinters, most of the point-scoring swimmers train elsewhere, so to name the Sallies coach, the Charter coach, etc. to be Coach of the Year would be, in my mind, a questionable decision. Yes, they do put kids in the right events, but at the same time, this is just knowing what events your swimmers are best at a lot of times. That's not to say these coaches shouldn't get any credit - after all, they did lead their teams to high finishes at the State Meet, and they also helped countless other swimmers improve their times throughout the season with the high school practices. So, it really is an interesting decision for the Coach of the Year.

Also, there has been a lot of healthy discussion regarding the All-State selections on one of the other previous posts, and as always, suggestions are welcome to improve it. Should the power points be used? I think that it is an interesting approach, using them to attempt to compare events that ordinarily wouldn't be compared. But, I think it also has its flaws, since it does try to compare things that maybe cannot be compared. I mean, who is to say that a 1:05.40 100 Breast (the average 8th place time from 2004-2010) earns 95 points, while 22.85 50 Free (the average 8th place time from 2004-2010) earns 108, and a 50.31 in the 100 Free (same average) earns 106 points? Are Delaware breaststrokers just systematically slower than Delaware sprint freestylers? Is the power point table biased towards sprint freestylers? If we are going to use something to compare events like that, I think we need to find something better. These power points are from 1999, and don't always seem fair at that. Is there a better way? I'm not sure, but if there is, there is no reason we can't find it.

Congratulations again to everyone on a great meet and a great swim season. Check back occasionally for updates, and hopefully there will be more to come next season.