Season Wrap Up

After what was, for me, a long week since the state meet, I am finally getting a chance to take a look at results and put a little word up here about them. I got a chance to see the official all-state lists, and the results as published here look to be accurate with one change - Rob Pagan of Charter is on the Second Team, not the Honorable Mention (yes, that does make for 16 people on the second team, and no, I don't know why they did it that way, especially since there were actually a total of 45 male swimmers named to the All-State Team).

Anyway, it looks like this year was a bit of a "record" year, with (what may be an unprecedented) 9 records set:
Boys:
Eric Materniak 200 IM 1:52.32
Tanner Kurz 50 Free 20.40
Clifton Gordon 100 Fly 49.08
Tanner Kurz 100 Back 50.29

Girls:
Charter 200 Medley Relay 1:47.37 (team of Crowder, Rechsteiner, Foreman, and Nunes)
Kaitlyn Jones 200 IM 2:00.60
Annie Nunes 100 Free 50.91
Charter 200 Free Relay 1:38.10 (team of Rechsteiner, Faull, Nunes, and Foreman)
Katie Rechsteiner 100 Breast 1:02.58

Congrats to all of the record-breakers on making this a record-breaking year.

As for the team scores, the Salesianum Boys and Charter Girls won in commanding fashion, as was pretty much expected. However, the race for second went to Charter on the boys' side, something that The News Journal didn't pick up on during the season, and DMA fell to fifth, behind St. Mark's and A.I. Now, if DMA hadn't been disqualified in their 200 Medley Relay, they probably would have been 4th, but that is part of the sport. A.I., also was missing some swimmers for various reasons, but, again, that is part of high school athletics. On the girls' side, Padua earned second place, as they had been ranked, and St. Mark's got fourth, just one back from their end-of-season ranking. Tatnall, previously not ranked, moved into third place (as to have been expected by the Delaware swimming community), and Brandywine rounded out the top 5, with pressure from Newark and Milford. Meanwhile, the end-of-season fourth place Concord team fell to 14th and A.I. (fifth at The News Journal) fell to 9th. Granted, this was a snow-shortened season, but some of the rankings this year were pretty far off. That being said, The News Journal, as most other print newspapers must be struggling at this point just to stay afloat, so the minimal coverage is almost forgivable.

On another note, I've noticed some discussion in the comments regarding high school coaches. Swimming is maybe one of the hardest sports to pick a coach to be the Coach of the Year, because so many of the All-State level swimmers never or hardly ever practice with their high school team. Except for some sprinters, most of the point-scoring swimmers train elsewhere, so to name the Sallies coach, the Charter coach, etc. to be Coach of the Year would be, in my mind, a questionable decision. Yes, they do put kids in the right events, but at the same time, this is just knowing what events your swimmers are best at a lot of times. That's not to say these coaches shouldn't get any credit - after all, they did lead their teams to high finishes at the State Meet, and they also helped countless other swimmers improve their times throughout the season with the high school practices. So, it really is an interesting decision for the Coach of the Year.

Also, there has been a lot of healthy discussion regarding the All-State selections on one of the other previous posts, and as always, suggestions are welcome to improve it. Should the power points be used? I think that it is an interesting approach, using them to attempt to compare events that ordinarily wouldn't be compared. But, I think it also has its flaws, since it does try to compare things that maybe cannot be compared. I mean, who is to say that a 1:05.40 100 Breast (the average 8th place time from 2004-2010) earns 95 points, while 22.85 50 Free (the average 8th place time from 2004-2010) earns 108, and a 50.31 in the 100 Free (same average) earns 106 points? Are Delaware breaststrokers just systematically slower than Delaware sprint freestylers? Is the power point table biased towards sprint freestylers? If we are going to use something to compare events like that, I think we need to find something better. These power points are from 1999, and don't always seem fair at that. Is there a better way? I'm not sure, but if there is, there is no reason we can't find it.

Congratulations again to everyone on a great meet and a great swim season. Check back occasionally for updates, and hopefully there will be more to come next season.

Finals

Boys' Results here. Team Scores here.
Girls' Results here. Team Scores here.
Boys' All-State (based off power points):

1st Team All State
Name	School	Event #1	Points #1	Event #2	Points #2	Total
Tanner Kurz	Delaware Militar	50 Free	155	100 Back	150	305
Clifton Gordon	Salesianum	200 Free	138	100 Fly	155	293
Eric Materniak	Tatnall	200 IM	145	100 Breast	140	285
Tommy McKee	Brandywine	200 Free	141	100 Free	132	273
Bryan Brown	Dover	100 Free	126	100 Back	139	265
Sean Minderlein	Salesianum	200 Free	126	500 Free	137	263
Brad Brooks	Charter	200 Free	124	500 Free	125	249
Tim Stradley	A.I. duPont	50 Free	122	100 Free	126	248
Jack Reardon	A.I. duPont	50 Free	124	100 Free	122	246
Jordan Lingo	Milford	200 Free	118	500 Free	121	239
Tyler Beeson	Mt. Pleasant	50 Free	118	100 Free	121	239
Joseph Creekmore	Archmere	200 Free	122	500 Free	116	238
Matthew Tankle	Salesianum	200 Free	119	100 Free	117	236
Alan Panaccione	St. Mark's	200 IM	112	100 Back	122	234
Greg Miraglia	Wilmington Frien	1st place diver		No Second Event		N/A

2nd Team All State
Name	School	Event #1	Points #1	Event #2	Points #2	Total
Matthew Armiger	St. Mark's	200 Free	112	100 Free	121	233
Matt Jennings	A.I. duPont	200 IM	109	100 Breast	123	232
Alex Hampel	Salesianum	200 IM	118	500 Free	112	230
Bryan Panaccione	St. Mark's	100 Fly	113	100 Back	116	229
Adam Keup	Delaware Militar	200 IM	110	100 Fly	110	220
Zack Pryor	Salesianum	200 IM	89	100 Fly	113	202
Seth Kurz	Delaware Militar	200 IM	102	100 Breast	95	197
Dan Loa	Charter	200 IM	88	100 Breast	107	195
Nick Insley	Appoquinimink	100 Back	118	No Second Event		118
Toby Berry	Delaware Militar	50 Free	117	No Second Event		117
Sam Inden	Brandywine	50 Free	117	No Second Event		117
Andrew Welch	Glasgow	100 Back	113	No Second Event		113
Lee Mayer	Seaford	100 Free	113	No Second Event		113
Michael Wanner	Salesianum	50 Free	110	No Second Event		110
John Gravatt	Salesianum	2nd place diver		No Second Event		N/A

3rd Team All State
Name	School	Event #1	Points #1	Event #2	Points #2	Total
Robert Pagan	Charter	100 Fly	109	No Second Event		109
Tyler Coffing	Newark	50 Free	108	No Second Event		108
Nicholas Perkucin	Mt. Pleasant	500 Free	105	No Second Event		105
Cody Latchford	William Penn	100 Back	104	No Second Event		104
Eric Scheivert	Concord	100 Breast	103	No Second Event		103
Brent Hochstein	Salesianum	100 Breast	102	No Second Event		102
Chris Gardner	Charter	100 Back	101	No Second Event		101
John Sach	Lake Forest	100 Fly	93	No Second Event		93
Cody Quig	Salesianum	100 Fly	93	No Second Event		93
Matthew Stasiunas	Salesianum	500 Free	93	No Second Event		93
Christopher Barboun	Salesianum	100 Breast	88	No Second Event		88
John Tanjuakio	Charter	100 Fly	86	No Second Event		86
Zachary Brak	St. Andrews	100 Breast	82	No Second Event		82
Sam Dever	Charter	500 Free	77	No Second Event		77
Miles Comaskey	A.I. duPont	3rd place diver		No Second Event		N/A

Girls' All-State (based off power points):

1st Team All State
Name	School	Event #1	Points #1	Event #2	Points #2	Total
Kaitlyn Jones	Tatnall	200 IM	161	100 Back	157	318
Nicole Vernon	Tatnall	200 Free	150	500 Free	151	301
Annie Nunes	Charter	200 Free	136	100 Free	149	285
Katherine Rechsteiner	Charter	200 IM	120	100 Breast	161	281
Nicole Osman	Newark	200 IM	133	100 Fly	141	274
Calli Marando	Middletown	100 Fly	136	100 Breast	135	271
Kendall Towe	Sanford School	200 Free	134	500 Free	134	268
Haley Novak	St. Mark's	200 IM	127	100 Breast	136	263
Megan Northshield	Tatnall	100 Fly	133	500 Free	126	259
Alyssa Sanders	Milford	50 Free	129	100 Back	128	257
Shannon Foreman	Charter	50 Free	130	100 Free	127	257
Laura Askin	Caesar Rodney	200 Free	120	100 Free	123	243
Payton Shirey	Sussex Tech	50 Free	132	100 Free	110	242
Samantha Shelley	Padua	500 Free	115	100 Breast	125	240
Katie Lounsbury	Tatnall	1st place diver		No Second Event		N/A

2nd Team All State
Name	School	Event #1	Points #1	Event #2	Points #2	Total
Alexis Coon	Milford	200 IM	106	100 Breast	124	230
Meghan Lam	Tower Hill	200 IM	108	100 Back	121	229
Corinne Capodanno	Padua	50 Free	115	100 Free	111	226
Haley Arasim	Brandywine	100 Fly	113	100 Back	110	223
Lexi Santer	Charter	200 Free	108	500 Free	107	215
Kelly McKinley	Brandywine	100 Fly	108	100 Breast	106	214
Meghan Holliday	Charter	200 IM	109	500 Free	104	213
Jaclyn Harkins	St. Mark's	200 Free	105	500 Free	108	213
Brittany Lazear	Padua	200 Free	105	100 Back	102	207
Catharine Armiger	St. Mark's	200 Free	104	500 Free	101	205
Taylor Shelley	Padua	200 IM	86	100 Back	118	204
Mary Caitlin Samuels	Ursuline	100 Fly	118	No Second Event		118
Megan Blazovic	Padua	50 Free	115	No Second Event		115
Laura Jogani	Ursuline	100 Fly	113	No Second Event		113
Clare Thomas	Sussex Tech	100 Free	113	No Second Event		113
April Sun	Charter	100 Breast	113	No Second Event		113
Leah Hatkevich	A.I. duPont	2nd place diver		No Second Event		N/A

3rd Team All State
Name	School	Event #1	Points #1	Event #2	Points #2	Total
Caitlin Towe	Sanford School	100 Fly	112	No Second Event		112
Emily Kauffman	Newark	50 Free	106	No Second Event		106
Annie Walker	Charter	100 Back	106	No Second Event		106
Jordan Sawyer	Newark	50 Free	106	No Second Event		106
Angelina Corrado	Brandywine	100 Free	104	No Second Event		104
Denise Tankle	Archmere	100 Free	103	No Second Event		103
Erin Steffen	Padua	100 Breast	101	No Second Event		101
Alicia Howard	Charter	50 Free	100	No Second Event		100
Rachel Lynch	Charter	100 Back	99	No Second Event		99
Katie Parks	A.I. duPont	3rd place diver		No Second Event		N/A

More discussion to come later.

Waiting for Results

I haven't found any results yet for the meets today, unless I find something later, don't expect an update until tomorrow afternoon (if I'm lucky I'll get it in tomorrow morning). I hear that there were some really fast swims all day today, and at least a few records set throughout the day. More tomorrow...

Boys' Finals

Still waiting on any results for the earlier finals. Once I see them posted I will get them up here ASAP. From what I hear, at least a few records were set, and there was definitely some fast swimming. More in a bit...

Girls' Prelims **UPDATED**

From what I hear there was some fast swimming tonight at prelims: at least one broken record and a few others that could be broken on Saturday. I haven't seen results up on-line yet, but when I do, I will post them here along with team scores and All-State Predictions. Hopefully, I can get something up tomorrow morning, most likely around 11:00, so check back then for an update.

UPDATE:

Just got out of class for the morning, Girls' Results are here.

Score after prelims:

School	Points
1. Charter Sch of Wilm	360
2. Padua	244
3. St. Mark's	210
4. Tatnall	209
5. Brandywine	146.5
6. Newark	143
7. Milford	133
8. Sanford School	118
9. A.I. duPont	110
10. Ursuline	102

Also, All-State Prediction:

1st Team All State
Name	School	Event #1	Points #1	Event #2	Points #2	Total
Kaitlyn Jones	Tatnall	200 IM	137	100 Back	147	284
Nicole Vernon	Tatnall	200 Free	130	500 Free	136	266
Annie Nunes	Charter	200 Free	127	100 Free	135	262
Katherine Rechsteiner	Charter	200 IM	110	100 Breast	145	255
Calli Marando	Middletown	100 Fly	127	100 Breast	125	252
Nicole Osman	Newark	200 IM	118	100 Fly	130	248
Haley Novak	St. Mark's	200 IM	116	100 Breast	127	243
Megan Northshield	Tatnall	100 Fly	126	500 Free	116	242
Payton Shirey	Sussex Tech	50 Free	127	100 Free	114	241
Alyssa Sanders	Milford	50 Free	128	100 Back	113	241
Shannon Foreman	Charter	50 Free	120	100 Free	115	235
Samantha Shelley	Padua	500 Free	115	100 Breast	118	233
Kendall Towe	Sanford School	200 Free	116	500 Free	117	233
Meghan Lam	Tower Hill	200 IM	112	100 Back	121	233
Leah Hatkevich	A.I. duPont	1st place diver		No Second Event		N/A

2nd Team All State
Name	School	Event #1	Points #1	Event #2	Points #2	Total
Laura Askin	Caesar Rodney	200 Free	114	100 Free	118	232
Haley Arasim	Brandywine	100 Fly	119	100 Back	107	226
Alexis Coon	Milford	200 IM	102	100 Breast	124	226
Kelly McKinley	Brandywine	100 Fly	111	100 Breast	112	223
Corinne Capodanno	Padua	50 Free	113	100 Free	109	222
Jaclyn Harkins	St. Mark's	200 Free	108	500 Free	107	215
Catharine Armiger	St. Mark's	200 Free	107	500 Free	108	215
Brittany Lazear	Padua	200 Free	107	100 Back	106	213
Lexi Santer	Charter	200 Free	105	500 Free	106	211
Meghan Holliday	Charter	200 IM	103	500 Free	108	211
Taylor Shelley	Padua	200 IM	86	100 Back	111	197
Mary Caitlin Samuels	Ursuline	100 Fly	120	No Second Event		120
Laura Jogani	Ursuline	100 Fly	114	No Second Event		114
Megan Blazovic	Padua	50 Free	113	No Second Event		113
Katie Lounsbury	Tatnall	2nd place diver		No Second Event		N/A

3rd Team All State
Name	School	Event #1	Points #1	Event #2	Points #2	Total
April Sun	Charter	100 Breast	111	No Second Event		111
Caitlin Towe	Sanford School	100 Fly	110	No Second Event		110
Clare Thomas	Sussex Tech	100 Free	109	No Second Event		109
Emily Kauffman	Newark	50 Free	109	No Second Event		109
Jordan Sawyer	Newark	50 Free	107	No Second Event		107
Alicia Howard	Charter	50 Free	105	No Second Event		105
Annie Walker	Charter	100 Back	104	No Second Event		104
Angelina Corrado	Brandywine	100 Free	104	No Second Event		104
Denise Tankle	Archmere	100 Free	104	No Second Event		104
Erin Steffen	Padua	100 Breast	102	No Second Event		102
Rachel Lynch	Charter	100 Back	101	No Second Event		101
Katie Parks	A.I. duPont	3rd place diver		No Second Event		N/A

Also, Congrats to Charter's 200 Free Relay team on setting a new state record, with a time of 1:39.79.

A few other swimmers may have a chance with a good finals swim to set records, namely the 100 free and 100 breast, where Annie Nunes and Katie Rechsteiner sit about 1 second away from a record.

Good luck to everyone on Saturday, I will be at a club swim meet most of the day, so I'm not sure what sort of updates you can expect that day, but hopefully at very least, I'll be able to get information up by Sunday afternoon, and for all of you who got time off today for snow, hopefully you can get some well-earned rest and come back Saturday with fast times and a great meet.

Girls' Prelims to be Held as Scheduled

Sounds like everything is on for tonight.

Please drive carefully, and leave early to get to the meet.

Good luck to everyone, and have a safe day.

Taking a Statistical Look at Prelims

Going from last year to this year, first looking at the 8th/9th place cutoff times, there are only two events this year that were faster than last year's cutoffs: the 200 free and the 100 back. (To do this, I took the average of the 8th and 9th place times in 2009 and compared them with the average of the 8th and 9th place times of 2010; 9th place in the 100 Free was actually .04 seconds faster this year compared with last year, but otherwise both the 8th and the 9th place times were faster in the year with the faster 8th/9th average).
OK, now for the real "statistical" part...
I decided to run some hypothesis tests to try to first determine if, in fact, there was a significant difference between the results from 2009 and the results from 2010. To do this, I went event by event and took the average time, in seconds, of the top 16 finishers at prelims, then used Microsoft Excel to run a 2-sample t-test based on those two means from 2009 and 2010 in each event. Using a significance level of α=0.10 (such that each tail represents an area of 0.05). From here, I found that the 200 Medley Relay, 200 IM, 50 Free, 100 Fly, and 100 Breast all showed significant differences between 2009 and 2010. Furthermore, all of these events showed that at the α=.05 significance level, the times from 2010 were slower than 2009. The rest of the events, while showing some difference in the average, did not show any significant difference, per the 2-sample t-test. So, on the whole, based on this analysis, I would say that the prelims' results show this year to be somewhat slower than last year. Then again, I don't think many would argue that last year was a particularly fast year, just by the intuitive sense of the times. If you have any questions about this analysis, or would like additional information or other statistical tests, let me know, I have the data well-organized enough that I can work with you on that. Have a great night, and good luck to the girls, whenever they swim.

Prelims Results

Boys' Prelims results can be found here.

Unofficial "Standings" based on prelims points, I'll look to upload a score sheet like I had done prior to prelims, but for now, some scores based off of one of Bruce Deakyne's programs:

1. Salesianum	453
2. Charter Sch of Wilm	253
3. St. Mark's	203.5
4. A.I. duPont	197
5. Delaware Military	160
6. Brandywine	141
7. Seaford	113
8. St. Andrews	107

Looks like A.I. is facing an uphill battle without some of its key swimmers. DMA, having been disqualified in the Medley Relay, an event they were seeded third in, misses out on a lot of points, and could have missed their chance to contend for third place. For now, the list only includes teams above 100 points, and I will be running a check of it soon. Also, All-State Predictions, now much more accurate, since we at least know who will have a chance to score for all-state power points (only the top 8):

1st Team All State
Name	School	Event #1	Points #1	Event #2	Points #2	Total
Tanner Kurz	Delaware Militar	50 Free	143	100 Back	141	284
Clifton Gordon	Salesianum	200 Free	130	100 Fly	142	272
Bryan Brown	Dover	100 Free	133	100 Back	137	270
Eric Materniak	Tatnall	200 IM	136	100 Breast	133	269
Brad Brooks	Charter	200 Free	120	500 Free	131	251
Tommy McKee	Brandywine	200 Free	125	100 Free	123	248
Tim Stradley	A.I. duPont	50 Free	122	100 Free	123	245
Sean Minderlein	Salesianum	200 Free	118	500 Free	125	243
Tyler Beeson	Mt. Pleasant	50 Free	119	100 Free	120	239
Matthew Tankle	Salesianum	200 Free	120	100 Free	119	239
Matthew Armiger	St. Mark's	200 Free	118	100 Free	119	237
Jack Reardon	A.I. duPont	50 Free	118	100 Free	117	235
Matt Jennings	A.I. duPont	200 IM	111	100 Breast	124	235
Alan Panaccione	St. Mark's	200 IM	108	100 Back	126	234
Greg Miraglia	Wilmington Frien	1st place diver		No Second Event		N/A

2nd Team All State
Name	School	Event #1	Points #1	Event #2	Points #2	Total
Bryan Panaccione	St. Mark's	100 Fly	114	100 Back	117	231
Jordan Lingo	Milford	200 Free	114	500 Free	111	225
Alex Hampel	Salesianum	200 IM	111	500 Free	109	220
Joseph Creekmore	Archmere	200 Free	111	500 Free	101	212
Adam Keup	Delaware Militar	200 IM	105	100 Fly	103	208
Zack Pryor	Salesianum	200 IM	91	100 Fly	114	205
Dan Loa	Charter	200 IM	95	100 Breast	108	203
Seth Kurz	Delaware Militar	200 IM	97	100 Breast	103	200
Toby Berry	Delaware Militar	50 Free	117	No Second Event		117
Nicholas Perkucin	Mt. Pleasant	500 Free	112	No Second Event		112
Tyler Coffing	Newark	50 Free	112	No Second Event		112
Andrew Welch	Glasgow	100 Back	112	No Second Event		112
Michael Wanner	Salesianum	50 Free	112	No Second Event		112
Sam Inden	Brandywine	50 Free	111	No Second Event		111
John Gravatt	Salesianum	2nd place diver		No Second Event		N/A

3rd Team All State
Name	School	Event #1	Points #1	Event #2	Points #2	Total
Lee Mayer	Seaford	100 Free	110	No Second Event		110
Robert Pagan	Charter	100 Fly	109	No Second Event		109
Nick Insley	Appoquinimink	100 Back	106	No Second Event		106
Cody Latchford	William Penn	100 Back	105	No Second Event		105
Chris Gardner	Charter	100 Back	103	No Second Event		103
Eric Scheivert	Concord	100 Breast	102	No Second Event		102
Matthew Stasiunas	Salesianum	500 Free	101	No Second Event		101
Sam Dever	Charter	500 Free	99	No Second Event		99
John Sach	Lake Forest	100 Fly	95	No Second Event		95
Brent Hochstein	Salesianum	100 Breast	95	No Second Event		95
Cody Quig	Salesianum	100 Fly	92	No Second Event		92
John Tanjuakio	Charter	100 Fly	91	No Second Event		91
Zachary Brak	St. Andrews	100 Breast	90	No Second Event		90
Christopher Barboun	Salesianum	100 Breast	87	No Second Event		87
Miles Comaskey	A.I. duPont	3rd place diver		No Second Event		N/A

Keep in mind, of course, that these results can still fluctuate greatly, some swimmers go much faster in finals than in prelims, so times, and therefore power points can vary a lot.

A few things I noticed while glancing through the results:
No records set tonight, but the 50 Free record looks to have a chance to fall. A few other prelims times were relatively close to records, but nowhere near as close to the few tenths of a second in the 50 free. Possibly one of the more interesting events was the 500 free. The top 8 ranged from 4:39 up to 5:01, then 9th place was 5:15. That is quite a disparity between two places, and really at an interesting spot for it to happen, separating the consolation heat from the final heat. Not sure how the times compare to last year yet, I am working on running a statistical analysis on them, once I'm happy with the way that looks I'll publish it here, probably some time tomorrow afternoon. Of course, I wasn't there to watch the meet this year (I don't remember the last state meet I missed, it's been a long time now), so if anyone saw anything interesting, or has any relevant comments or questions, please feel free to post them here or on the Facebook page.

Also, if anyone hears anything about the status of the meet tomorrow before I do, please let me know, I'd be glad to post any changes on the blog.

Boys' Prelims tonight...Snow Tomorrow?

First off, good luck to everyone tonight at the Boys' Prelims. Assuming the results are out later tonight, look for analysis and more here later on.
It sounds like they have just increased the forecast for 8-12 inches of snow in New Castle County through Friday morning. Seeing as this winter has been very snow-filled (even Georgia's high school state meet was postponed for a few days due to a few inches of snow), it seems like the forecast may actually be accurate. I have not heard anything yet about any change in plans, but, if you get a foot of snow, my guess is there will be some sort of rearranging the schedule. Hopefully they have over-predicted, and at worst case, they could have girls' prelims Friday night, with finals still on Saturday. But, as has been the pattern this winter, should there be a lot of snow, expect for some big changes to the schedule of the meet. If I hear anything, I'll post it here, and if anyone else hears anything, please feel free to post a comment, and I'll put up any information as I hear it. Again, best of luck, and let's hope that the meteorologists are overestimating the snowfall totals!

Notes on the All-State "Pre"-Previews

First off, special thanks to former Charter swimmer Bruce Deakyne for providing the program to quickly and efficiently calculate All-State swimmers based on Power Points.
Keep in mind, the title of these posts is crucial - they are "pre"-previews because so much can change at both prelims and finals. After prelims we can get a better guess at who will stand to score well for All-State, but until then, we don't know who will end up in the top 8 in each event, so we can't tell who can eve score for All-State yet. Coupled with that, again, I remind that the times used for psych sheets (and these calculations) are not necessarily the swimmers' best times, but rather, the best times these swimmers have had in high school meets this season. So, assuming that everyone is ready to go for the state meet, things could change due to that as well. But, all in all, this should give swimmers some idea where they stand in the all-state race.
On that note, as always, I would like to open up for debate the all-state selection process, and get people's thoughts on that if you feel so inclined. Should we only count the state meet? Should we also consider finishers 9-16 and give the top 8"bonus" points as well? Should we keep the system as it is? Any thoughts, so long as they remain respectful and appropriate are always welcome.

Girls' All State "Pre"-Preview

1st Team All State
Name	School	Event #1	Points #1	Event #2	Points #2	Total
Nicole Vernon	Tatnall	200 Free	122	500 Free	127	249
Alyssa Sanders	Milford	50 Free	126	100 Back	121	247
Kaitlyn Jones	Tatnall	200 IM	111	100 Back	130	241
Haley Novak	St. Mark's	200 IM	112	100 Breast	123	235
Kendall Towe	Sanford School	200 Free	114	500 Free	121	235
Megan Northshield	Tatnall	100 Fly	124	500 Free	110	234
Calli Marando	Middletown	100 Fly	121	100 Breast	109	230
Payton Shirey	Sussex Tech	50 Free	120	100 Free	105	225
Laura Askin	Caesar Rodney	200 Free	109	100 Free	115	224
Samantha Shelley	Padua	500 Free	100	100 Breast	122	222
Katherine Rechsteiner	Charter	200 IM	92	100 Breast	129	221
Nicole Osman	Newark	200 IM	108	100 Fly	110	218
Corinne Capodanno	Padua	50 Free	108	100 Free	106	214
Haley Arasim	Brandywine	100 Fly	111	100 Back	97	208
Harbour Boots	Lake Forest	1st place diver		No Second Event		N/A

2nd Team All State
Name	School	Event #1	Points #1	Event #2	Points #2	Total
Alexis Coon	Milford	200 IM	104	100 Breast	103	207
Shannon Foreman	Charter	50 Free	111	100 Free	96	207
Jaclyn Harkins	St. Mark's	200 Free	100	500 Free	102	202
Kelly McKinley	Brandywine	100 Fly	104	100 Breast	98	202
Angelina Corrado	Brandywine	50 Free	105	100 Free	96	201
Mary Caitlin Samuels	Ursuline	200 Free	92	100 Fly	105	197
Meghan Lam	Tower Hill	200 IM	95	100 Back	100	195
Annie Bruxelles	Sanford School	100 Free	100	100 Back	95	195
Megan Blazovic	Padua	50 Free	101	100 Free	92	193
Taylor Shelley	Padua	200 IM	84	100 Back	100	184
Lexi Santer	Charter	200 Free	90	500 Free	94	184
Taylor Hopkins	Concord	200 IM	80	100 Back	92	172
Annie Nunes	Charter	200 Free	114	No Second Event		114
Caitlin Towe	Sanford School	100 Fly	107	No Second Event		107
Leah Hatkevich	A.I. duPont	2nd place diver		No Second Event		N/A

3rd Team All State
Name	School	Event #1	Points #1	Event #2	Points #2	Total
Cecily Gordon	Padua	100 Fly	102	No Second Event		102
Alicia Howard	Charter	50 Free	97	No Second Event		97
Lindsey Horton	Brandywine	50 Free	96	No Second Event		96
Meghan Holliday	Charter	500 Free	94	No Second Event		94
Claire Mesko	A.I. duPont	500 Free	94	No Second Event		94
Clare Thomas	Sussex Tech	100 Free	93	No Second Event		93
Catharine Armiger	St. Mark's	200 Free	91	No Second Event		91
Bryn Crowder	Charter	100 Back	90	No Second Event		90
Erin Steffen	Padua	100 Breast	89	No Second Event		89
April Sun	Charter	100 Breast	88	No Second Event		88
Katie Lounsbury	Tatnall	3rd place diver		No Second Event		N/A

Boys' All State "Pre"-Preview

1st Team All State
Name	School	Event #1	Points #1	Event #2	Points #2	Total
Eric Materniak	Tatnall	200 IM	134	100 Breast	128	262
Clifton Gordon	Salesianum	200 Free	125	100 Fly	136	261
Bryan Brown	Dover	100 Free	120	100 Back	130	250
Tanner Kurz	Delaware Militar	50 Free	130	100 Back	117	247
Tommy McKee	Brandywine	200 Free	127	100 Free	120	247
Sean Minderlein	Salesianum	200 Free	123	500 Free	122	245
Brad Brooks	Charter	200 Free	118	500 Free	118	236
Toby Berry	Delaware Militar	50 Free	120	100 Free	109	229
Jack Reardon	A.I. duPont	50 Free	120	100 Free	105	225
Bryan Panaccione	St. Mark's	100 Fly	106	100 Back	116	222
Alan Panaccione	St. Mark's	200 IM	104	100 Back	115	219
Tim Stradley	A.I. duPont	50 Free	107	100 Free	110	217
Matthew Tankle	Salesianum	200 Free	106	100 Free	110	216
Matthew Armiger	St. Mark's	200 Free	107	100 Free	109	216
John Gravatt	Salesianum	1st place diver		No Second Event		N/A

2nd Team All State
Name	School	Event #1	Points #1	Event #2	Points #2	Total
Matt Jennings	A.I. duPont	200 IM	102	100 Breast	112	214
Jordan Lingo	Milford	200 Free	104	500 Free	107	211
Alex Hampel	Salesianum	200 IM	111	500 Free	100	211
Adam Keup	Delaware Militar	200 IM	96	100 Fly	103	199
Joseph Creekmore	Archmere	200 Free	105	500 Free	91	196
Zack Pryor	Salesianum	200 IM	90	100 Fly	101	191
Brent Hochstein	Salesianum	200 IM	89	100 Breast	88	177
Nicholas Perkucin	Mt. Pleasant	200 IM	88	500 Free	88	176
Lee Mayer	Seaford	50 Free	111	No Second Event		111
Andrew Brant	Charter	100 Breast	109	No Second Event		109
Tyler Beeson	Mt. Pleasant	50 Free	108	No Second Event		108
Adam Sosnowik	Salesianum	50 Free	108	No Second Event		108
Michael Wanner	Salesianum	50 Free	107	No Second Event		107
Nick Gutsche	Charter	100 Free	107	No Second Event		107
Greg Miraglia	Wilmington Frien	2nd place diver		No Second Event		N/A

3rd Team All State
Name	School	Event #1	Points #1	Event #2	Points #2	Total
Andrew Welch	Glasgow	100 Back	105	No Second Event		105
Chris Gardner	Charter	100 Back	104	No Second Event		104
Cody Latchford	William Penn	100 Back	100	No Second Event		100
Robert Pagan	Charter	100 Fly	100	No Second Event		100
Nick Insley	Appoquinimink	100 Back	97	No Second Event		97
Brian Mullin	Salesianum	100 Fly	91	No Second Event		91
Mike Testa	Concord	100 Fly	90	No Second Event		90
Matthew Stasiunas	Salesianum	500 Free	89	No Second Event		89
Zach Nerwinski	Tatnall	100 Fly	88	No Second Event		88
Seth Kurz	Delaware Militar	100 Breast	87	No Second Event		87
Dan Loa	Charter	100 Breast	86	No Second Event		86
Zachary Brak	St. Andrews	100 Breast	84	No Second Event		84
Tyler Saltiel	Cape Henlopen	100 Breast	83	No Second Event		83
Peter Mihalcik	St. Andrews	500 Free	79	No Second Event		79
Daniel Callaghan	Salesianum	3rd place diver		No Second Event		N/A

Girls' States Preview

For the girls' preview, I am going to follow the same general format for the boys' preview, and leave in much of the scoring/housekeeping information so that you do not have to read both posts if you are only interested in one.

So, as many of you know, the psych sheets for the State Meet came out this past weekend (they can be found here). As it stands per The News Journal, the top 5 Girls' Teams through February 16th were:

1. Charter of Wilm. (12-0)
2. Padua (6-0)
3. St. Mark’s (10-1)
4. Concord (12-2)
5. A.I. du Pont (12-2)

For the girls, my biggest question was, even having not followed the season as closely, "where's Tatnall?" Now, obviously with all of the snow and the slew of canceled meets, it is tough to really know how teams compare, since teams like Padua have only swam 6 meets throughout the entire season. That being said, I was still shocked that Tatnall was not included, and a further look through some results shows (I think) a tie with Sanford and a loss to Archmere. So, with a small sample of meets to choose from, I can understand why Tatnall wasn't included. But, with the psych sheets out, I calculated, just as with the boys, a score sheet with all teams scoring above 100 points, and published it here.

A few notes on the score sheet:

• The top 3 rows are the relay scores - 200 Medley, 200 Free, and 400 Free, and the points each team is "seeded" with there.
• After that, each event has 4 rows dedicated to it (4 is the maximum number of entrants per team for any given event).
• In general, the darker the score box, the more points a team scores there, so it gives a nice visual representation of which teams are scoring more points and where.
• Also, the relays are in red, then the events alternate orange and green for no reason other than to clearly distinguish between the events.
• At the bottom, the final column is the expected total score for that team, and for those of you who don't wish to view the entire document, here are the scores (again, only of teams with greater than 100 points):

1. Charter - 325
2. Padua - 246
3. Tatnall - 223
4. Brandywine - 190
5. St. Mark's - 165
6. Milford - 159
7. Sanford - 150
8. Newark - 112
9. Archmere - 111
9. A.I. - 111

As compared to the Boys, there are many more teams with over 100 points, and a lot of room for change, although Charter girls seem to be comfortably sitting in first place, though they don't have a nearly 200 point cushion like the Salesianum boys.

A few comments about the meet:

• Just as a bit of a housekeeping item, a reminder on scoring:

1st=20, 2nd=17, 3rd=16, 4th=15, 5th=14, 6th=13, 7th=12, 8th=11, 9th=9, 10th=7, 11th=6, 12th=5, 13th=4, 14th=3, 15th=2, and 16th=1 for all individual events. Points are doubled for relays.

• Also, a note I probably made last year regarding relays, is that I would guess they have the most potential to change at the meet. Most relay entry times are entered as the fastest possible combination of any four swimmers on the team. However, with an entry limitation of two relays per swimmer, if a team's best 50/100 Freestyle swimmer swam in the fastest recorded time for each of the relays, now she can only be entered into two of those relays. So, the team has to give up some time in one of the relays.

• Finally, keep in mind that not all of the seed times reflect the swimmers' best times. Many swimmers have faster times than those listed in meets outside of the high school competitions that are not included in high school states seed times, and they could potentially change their places drastically at the meet.

This meet should be thoroughly exciting for at least 2nd-10th places, if not further along. Every team has another team either not far behind or not far ahead, leaving a lot up to those close races at the meet. The difference between 8th and 9th at prelims, or 16th and 17th at prelims could cause for a big difference in any of the scores, and although I'm confident that Charter has a clear advantage for first, I would say much of the other spots are up for grabs. Biggest surprise based on the psych sheets I would say is Milford, who, with two strong divers, and a few highly-placed swimmers throughout has a legitimate chance to place higher than most would have expected.

Best of luck to everyone at the meet this week, hope you all don't see any snow! If any new updates come to be before the meet I will try to post what I hear on the blog, and I will hopefully be able to get some information out after the preliminary nights on Wednesday and Thursday with team scores and finals projections.

Boys' Meet Preview

So, as many of you know, the psych sheets for the State Meet came out this past weekend (they can be found here). As it stands per The News Journal, the top 5 Boys' Teams through February 16th were:

1. Salesianum (9-2)
2. A.I. du Pont (13-0-1)
3. Del. Military (9-0)
4. Charter of Wilm. (11-0-1)
5. St. Mark’s (10-1)

It seems to me that the most underrated team here is probably Charter, seeing as they tied A.I. this year (although A.I. was missing some key performers for that meet), and, while they never swam DMA directly, it seems that Charter would tend to have a depth advantage over DMA as well. So, with the Psych Sheets out, I used them to calculate scores for any team with 100+ "psych sheet" points. I have published the results here.

A few notes on the score sheet:

• The top 3 rows are the relay scores - 200 Medley, 200 Free, and 400 Free, and the points each team is "seeded" with there.
• After that, each event has 4 rows dedicated to it (4 is the maximum number of entrants per team for any given event).
• In general, the darker the score box, the more points a team scores there, so it gives a nice visual representation of which teams are scoring more points and where.
• Also, the relays are in red, then the events alternate orange and green for no reason other than to clearly distinguish between the events.
• At the bottom, the final column is the expected total score for that team, and for those of you who don't wish to view the entire document, here are the scores (again, only of teams with greater than 100 points):

1. Salesianum - 455
2. Charter - 260
3. A. I. - 229
4. DMA - 192
5. St. Mark's - 178
6. Brandywine - 149
7. Tatnall - 105

So, as it stands, it looks like The News Journal has the right top 5 teams, just not necessarily in the right order (although, things are close enough that those rankings can easily change, probably with the exception of Salesianum in first).

A few comments about the meet:

• Just as a bit of a housekeeping item, a reminder on scoring:

1st=20, 2nd=17, 3rd=16, 4th=15, 5th=14, 6th=13, 7th=12, 8th=11, 9th=9, 10th=7, 11th=6, 12th=5, 13th=4, 14th=3, 15th=2, and 16th=1 for all individual events. Points are doubled for relays.

• Also, a note I probably made last year regarding relays, is that I would guess they have the most potential to change at the meet. Most relay entry times are entered as the fastest possible combination of any four swimmers on the team. However, with an entry limitation of two relays per swimmer, if a team's best 50/100 Freestyle swimmer swam in the fastest recorded time for each of the relays, now he can only be entered into two of those relays. So, the team has to give up some time in one of the relays.

• Finally, keep in mind that not all of the seed times reflect the swimmers' best times. Many swimmers have faster times than those listed in meets outside of the high school competitions that are not included in high school states seed times, and they could potentially change their places drastically at the meet.

As a bit of commentary on this year's meet in particular, it looks like Salesianum is going to have smooth sailing to yet another state title. The battle for second is a little closer, but seeing as A.I. is missing some key swimmers for the meet, it looks like they will be sitting in third. DMA could surprise A.I. for third, but I would guess the competition would be tougher for them with St. Mark's, and maybe even a little from Brandywine. Tatnall, with a small team, for now is in 7th, but there are other teams not far below the 100 point mark who could give them a run for their money.

Best of luck to everyone at the meet this week, hope you all don't see any snow! I will have a girls' meet preview soon, hopefully within the next hour, otherwise, check back later tonight.

States Preview Coming

So, I haven't updated this blog hardly at all throughout the season, but I will be doing a bit of a states update and states information as the season finishes. I will hopefully have a states update tomorrow sometime.